Should I Move to Higher Ground? Some Thoughts on Climate Change
66Floods in Workington, Cumbria 2009
Should I move to higher ground?
This is serious. Really serious. I live on the south-east coast of England in a Victorian terraced house three streets back from the sea-front, and what I want to know is this. Should I move to higher ground?
The internet is buzzing with information about climate change, global warming, glacial melt, Arctic ice, Antarctic ice, but what I really need to know, on a purely practical selfish basis, is how all this will affect me, and my family, and my home. Yes of course I care about the planet, and I care about the Nepalese villagers living in fear of giant mud slides caused through the melting glaciers, and I care about Tuvalu and the Maldives vanishing beneath the rising seas. But I also worry about the floods we had in Sussex in 2000, which didn't affect us directly, but did, however, affect the streets which lie between us and the sea.
Now the thing I have discovered in recent years is that the sea is not our biggest worry. It's the rivers that have so far caused most of the localised flooding in the UK. Weather patterns have changed, and a few days of heavy rainfall seem almost guaranteed to cause a problem somewhere in the British Isles. But take a look at Great Britain on any map, and you cannot help but notice the ragged nature of our coastline, and the many tiny islands that might once have been joined to us by land mass. It's not such a stretch to imagine hundreds more little rocks and islands surrounding a diminished land mass. Will Thundersbarrow Hill and Mount Caburn one day be islets? Will future generations take dive boats out to explore the drowned streets of Shoreham and Lewes?
If you live in the UK, or if you're just curious about how things might shape up in the years to come, click this link. Just a one metre rise in sea level will see the loss of low lying areas of Cambridgeshire. It will impact on the Yorkshire coast in the area around Hull. East Sussex and Kent will also see land loss. A five metre rise will see greater in-roads into Yorkshire and Cambridgeshire, plus coastal loss along the Severn Estuary and around our great ports of Southampton and Portsmouth in Hampshire on the south coast.
A ten metre rise in sea levels will see large parts of the London area drowned. At plus ten metres my home will be long gone beneath the waves, as will the entire town of Worthing, and all of the other coastal towns travelling west until you reach Lymington at the edge of the New Forest. This sounds awful. It is awful, but worse yet is what this amount of increase will do to our neighbours across the North Sea. The aptly named low lands of Holland and Belgium, plus huge swathes of Scandinavia will all but disappear.
Will the melting ice caps cause the waters to rise?
According to a report published by the BBC, it's likely that the polar melt will increase the sea levels by approximately 1.4m by the end of the century. My home, for the time being at least, is safe. This is not so true for others in the UK and in the low-lying areas of Europe. It's certainly not looking so good for many low-lying regions elsewhere in the world. I've already mentioned Tuvalu and the Maldives, but there are many communities around the globe that are already vulnerable to seasonal floods, and this can only increase as the sea levels rise.
I don't know whether carbon emissions are partially or wholly to blame for climate change, and in a way, that's become less important than dealing with the reality of what is happening to our planet. Climategate is an irrelevance. There is a problem. Maybe generating less CO2 will make a difference. Maybe not. What is needed now is an acknowledgement of the facts, and some sensible debate about where do we go from here.
CommentsLoading...
The localised flooding that you are talking about is probably due more to deforestation that to a rise in sea levels. But deforestation will lead to a rise in CO2 levels which is expected to ultimately lead to a rise in sea levels.
I won't worry too much about sea rising levels, but if you are planning a move, no harm in asking the real estate agent to look for something a little further from the sea. :)
It seems to me there are three levels of skepticism available: 1) the climate is definitely changing, 2) the net direction is probably warmer, 3) human activity is possibly a (partial) cause.
Wherever we stand on these three, it seems sensible to prepare ourselves! You don't have to be by the sea to flood - the Avon and Severn(!) valleys flood every year, partly due to increased rainfall and partly mismanagement of flood plains, river banks, etc. Evesham had about 10 feet of water in the town centre a couple of years ago.
But even for those who think 'we' have nothing to do with it, it's still a great idea to reduce fossil fuel consumption. Because the reserves are limited. We don't want to run out until we have a properly developed alternative. Good thought-provoking hub!
Nice hub, I like it that people are finally starting to be aware of the damage we are doing to our planet on a day-to-day basis. Concern is the first step towards change.
While I've always believed that CO2 causes global warming, I always thought sea level rise was something that would happen in the future. But in my research lately for my climate change hubs I've learned that it's happening right now.
I agree with some of the other commenters that a lot of the flooding we see is due to deforestation and poor flood plain management, and you can see it inland just as much as next to the ocean. Just think about it - we've taken away hills and forests and put roads and parking lots in their place.
I often wonder regarding the flooding from river wether it has anything to do with banks not high enough and also in the middle not being scooped out often and deep enough? Lets face it the melting of the ice cap and all those overflowing river into the ocean - why isn't overflowing by now? What is going on there?
Hi Bob, I agree that the Earth has seen more changes in climate and geography than we have even the first clue about. My own conclusion is that my family are safe here on the south coast in the short term, but I probably wouldn't wish my great grand-children to still be so close to the sea in years to come.
Hi Wandereth, the rivers are more of a concern for us in the UK at the moment. The floods experienced in my area in 2000 were caused by heavy rainfall swelling underground streams and rivers. I live between the South Downs (a band of hills and high ground running across the South-East of England) and the sea. By the time the underground waterways which start in those hills, reached the coast, they had swelled to capacity, and the ground became like a quagmire.
From a long-term security point of view the distance from the sea and the rivers might not be so much of an issue, as the height above sea level.
Hi Paraglider,
My own feeling regarding climate change is that we are living through a natural cycle, but that human activity may also be making some contribution to the overall picture. Like yourself, I'm more concerned about the inevitable demise of fossil fuels. We will run out sooner or later, and I too, hope that sensible strategies will sonn be put in place to overcome our dependance on oil and coal.
Not building on flood plains might be a good plan too!
Hi Happyontheinside,
The human race is greedily using up the Earth's resources and there will inevitably be winners and losers once the oil-feast is over. Thanks for stopping by.
Hi William, as Paraglider mentions in his comment, parts of the UK have been very badly hit in recent times, primarily because flood plains have been built on, and gardens paved over. The UK is criss-crossed by rivers and waterways, and our weather is famously unpredictable. Rising sea levels are just one more problem.
Hi Hello,Hello, I know that many UK flood defences have been improved in areas where recent flooding has occured. The strategy of building up riverbanks probably only moves the problem downstream, but at least built-up areas can be spared that way, although it's tough on the country-side. And yes, dredging should be considered too.
And as well as deforestation and wall to wall tarmac, even the farmed land is much changed - removal of hedgerows and ditches, and compacting of the land by heavy machinery. All means that water runs off the land faster than before, and the waterways can't deal with it.
Wow, I don't blame you for being nervous. Is flood insurance available in Britain? You might just look into something like that and cross your fingers. It seems to me the hard questions involve timing--will you still be around when the sea level rises enough to harm your home? That's a tough call. Although this is definitely a dark way of looking at it, one thought I have is that if sea levels rise THAT quickly it might not matter what you do now--I mean there will be such social chaos that everyone will be impacted.
It's hard to make good decisions in this environment. Everything is so uncertain. Thank you for raising the issue though. I think about it often.
What doesn't help is all the houses being built on flood plains. Instead of the rain being soaked up by the ground, it runs off into the rivers and streams. then they burst their banks and flood houses nearby.
Not to indulge in one-up-manship, but you think you have problems -- my house is in Florida and we all know what will happen to it. On the up side, my house will make a lovely artifical reef.
Seriously, though. I understand your concern. My guess would be maybe you should, particularly if the flooding is already occurring close to your locale. Personally, although I am thoughtful of the situation, I see very little an individual can do about it, except support those leading the fight. Pure selfishness -- but I don't expect to live long enough to have to worry. Florida has experienced drought for the past several years, so the rivers aren't much of a concern. I learned recently on a trip to Boca Grand, that Florida was once a few hundred miles than it is now -- long before man and his assault on the environment. Que sera.
Hi Paraglider, we drove over to Petworth one rainy Sunday a few weeks back. Petworth is about a 45 minute drive away, on mostly winding country roads through villages and farmland, and I was amazed at how the water was just running off the fields. The ditches were over-flowing. It doesn't seem to take too much rain to cause a problem these days, and maybe the changes in farming have contributed to that.
Hi Pam, we have insurance, because thankfully, our house has never been flooded. Once you have been flooded things cease to be so straightforward (surprise, surprise!). I agree with your observation about social chaos. If you click the link to the sea-level map, and look at how things might go, you get an idea of how large a slice of Europe's population could be displaced, particularly in Holland and Scandinavia. Let's hope there is a long period of adjustment, because if this hit really quickly, things would get very ugly.
Hi Jayjay, the flood plains should never be built on, but try telling that to the developers! Here in the south-east we're constantly being told that more new homes are urgently needed. It's madness to keep cramming more and more houses onto farmland without looking at the environmental impact.
Hi lmmartin, I haven't seen the projections for Florida, but from your comment I imagine that you are also vulnerable should the sea levels continue to rise. I have this image of glass bottomed boats floating serenely over drowned cityscapes, though maybe not round here, as our seas tend to be green and murky! Certainly there's not too much that you and I can do about this, except for watch, wait, then make sensible contingency plans in good time if it starts looking serious.
I am sure glad I bought a canoe. Luckily, although the major city I live near would be mostly under water, I would be looking at owning oceanfront property! There is always an upside. :)
It's always good to have a plan, and there's a lot to be said for an oceanfront property! Thanks for stopping by Jess.
i'm doomed in Hull. I have family in Hastings but they are on high ground. Where I live we will disappear into the sea for certain. It just depends when. I vote we move to the highland's of Scotland.
Joking apart it does seriously worry me.
Amanda, I don’t think you’re selfish. I live high up, and I remember thinking, I’ll be all right - and then thinking what a selfish reaction. Then I went all cynical again, and thought, all the rich people will buy up all the high ground, and evict people like me (a bit like the Highland Clearances). Then I realised I was back thinking about me again. (I’m only human.)
The best solutions come when people work together - whether it’s on a local, national, or better still, global scale. Until that kind thing happens, I’ll stay on my hilltop and I’ll send you a sandbag every Christmas. (I doubt if it will be by Royal Mail - for much longer.)
Hi Ethel, I have to agree that things look bleak for your part of Yorkshire if the maps are anything to go by. Our next house move will probably be back towards Brighton, where the ground is higher. Alternatively we could ask Amillar if he has any recommendations!
Hi Amillar, it's only natural to consider this issue from a personal point of view. I do have concerns about how others will be affected, but of course my thoughts are about myself and my family first and foremost. Actually Scotland looks fairly well set if the seas continue to rise. Are there any nice houses going cheap in your area?
Amanda, I live in the Borders. It’s a bit remote - but for that reason housing is very cheap. People think nothing of buying a big new house here and commuting to work in Edinburgh (which is about 40-50 miles away) where a poky little flat would cost much more.
I live in a poky little flat here, so I suppose it would be a shoebox for me if I wanted to live in Edinburgh. But I’d situate it on top of the Pentland Hills. (It's a long walk to the supermarket.)
It sounds wonderful. I've had a couple of really great holidays in Scotland, and I think Edinburgh is fabulous. If only it were warmer, but then again, it soon might be!
I used to live in Evesham and work in Tewkesbury and was there during the floods in 2007. Many of the businesses near the river were flooded and some never opened again. It goes without saying that floods are devastating for those affected by them and I personally think our money (tax) could have been better spent providing flood defense than perhaps going to war.
But with respect to what is causing the climate change I am not convinced anyone really knows. I am sure from all the evidence provided that the destruction of natural resources (forests), our energy management and the use of fossil fuels is a contributing factor but what I don't know, or I think anyone else for that matter, is how much it contributes.
Good hub, short and concise, maybe I could take a lesson from you! LOL My only advice to you is to pray first, get a clear answer from God, then move where he tells you to. May you and your family experience a wonderful Christmas and New Year!
Its all money people. It a multi trillion dollar scam fueled by lies and corruption. The global Warming Summit
was comprised of foriegn leaders with thier greedy palms out.
Weird Al Gore is making tens of millions from the scare tactics and cowardly refuses to have an honest open debate. This is the same guy who claimed to have invented the internet and "Love Story" was about him and his wife. This is the same man who is driven by a gas guzzling carbon based limosines, lives in a huge non eco friendly mansion, owns coal mines and a steel plant. He flies in fossil burning private jets, yet perpetrates the evils of modern industrialization.
He calls anyone on the other side as non irrelevent, great coming from an open minded liberal.
History shows warming and cooling from written to geological facts. Coal seams in the Antarctic were form from ancient dense jungles. The present eqauator was frozon and the poles occilate as the Ozone Hole does. Research all sides and realize a scam like the Y2K scar was. People made millions from that also. The 1970's were sending us to a man made Ice Age. Time magazine had numerous articles from the most brilliant scientific minds who , by the way, demanded huge amounts of money for more studies. College text books then were printed and professors getting money for research were one hundred per cent certain we humans were the cause of advancing glaciers. Billions in foriegn aid is tolen by government leaders as they poor gets poorer'
Now, trillions will be stolen in the same way. Do not buy the lie!
At a 14 metre raise in sea levels I'll have a nice seaside property on the island of Lincolnshire!
The climate is definitely changing at an alarming rate and, whatever the cause (the thing we seem to argue about most) the numbers show dramatic changes are occurring right now. The fact that we've already got 6 million homes in the UK built on existing flood plains that are uninsurable suggests our "joined up government" might not be quite as efficient as they'd have you believe.
In terms of Copenhagen, it's votes, money, climate in that order and I suspect that the status quo in the political world won't be changing until we're all swimming!
Troll alert.
Mortgagestar1 has been here two weeks and published zero hubs while posting lots of comments, all leaning extremely to the right wherever applicable.
Hi Amanda - I guess whatever the statistics, whatever the causes, whatever the reasons - it's only when the effects come up to our doorstep that it becomes real for all of us. And we all have governments who should ideally be thinking of how to stem it or how to provide for it - but I guess that's asking for too much. A summit that deals in abstracts attracts heads of state - real life flooding and land erosion they just turn a blind eye to.
I do hope it's a long time before you need to start thinking of moving out of your home!
Hi Brian, the floods seem to have become an annual event in the UK thanks to a change in weather patterns, building on flood plains and a near cessation of regular dredging to keep waterways clear. Like you, I'm unconvinced that anyone knows 100% whether CO2 emissions have caused all or any of the climate change we're experiencing, but I do know that we're living through interesting times!
Hi Heavensgate, thanks for the advice, and a merry Christmas to you and yours!
Hi Mortgagestart, thanks for the advice, but to my mind there is no lie to buy. There's just opinions, and facts. The fact is that polar ice and glacial ice are melting, whatever the reason, and that my home, being on the coast, may be at risk from the rising seas. I can do very little about the CO2 emissions, apart from make less journeys (the price of diesel in the UK ensures that in any case) and generate less waste. Governments may be able to do more, but I suspect that's all smoke and mirrors for what it's worth.
Hi Rayalternately, if the waters go up 14m then my house will be beneath the waves, and I'll be heading for the hills in a very literal sense. I don't understand how waving chequebooks at Climate Change can do any good at all. If these governments want to do something positive and practical, they should be planning for mass evacuation and resettlement of vulnerable communities.
Hi CWB, thanks for the warning. Our right wing hubbers seem very upset that people might be making money out of climate change. Interesting ethics!
Hi Shalini, I can see that you understand my argument perfectly, and I suspect that you're right in your assumption that governments will continue to turn a blind eye to the real humanitarian disasters that are already happening due to climate change. They like to talk and wave their chequebooks around, but meaningful action is thin on the ground.
Good point Amanda. It's OK to get rich raping the Earth but, heaven forfend,how horrible that someone should make a penny from a renewable resource that would make life better for EVERYONE!
My thoughts exactly CWB.
Tricia lives on a hill, but Pat (now writing) lives fairly close to the seafront. Living in a seaside town though, we both take climate change seriously, but still could do a lot more.
Yesterday I heard someone say on the radio that for most people a car is essential. At the time I was driving my car to Lewes, and I thought 'I could be on the train.'
There may be a huge number of people who would have to change the way they do things without a car, but I find it hard to believe that for MOST people a car is essential.
Hi 2patricias, Like you, I know very well that I could manage quite a lot of my day to day life without a car, and in fact, yesterday in the snow, I decided I'd be safer walking to work. It took 45 minutes, but I arrived feeling very energised and happy. I'm now planning to do the walk more often!
Personally I love the train, and I would always opt to take the train to London for example, rather than drive, but the only thing that stops me is the horrendous price of rail travel these days.
In the end, I hope this 2012 jazz is false. I hope. But Southern Californian weather has changed as well (more rainy). Psychics say the U.S is going to get hit the worst. I don't know whether to believe that. I've got my pair of floatees just in case California is swallowed by a tschunami like Nostradamus predicted. You know, the chances of that happening are actually very high. The scientist say a big one (meaning earthquake) is long overdue.
Hi Writer Rider, don't worry too much about 2012. I think the rational explanation for all the hype is that the ancient Mayans only got so far with their calender before their clever scientists and astronomers succumbed to whatever it was that overtook their civilisation. I have read that various planetary alignments rarely seen are due in 2012, so maybe they just took their workings up to an interesting point in time, before going on to other things.
As to earthquakes and tsunamis, I guess the earth will always be vulnerable to seismic events. The weather patterns are changing globally I think, because they always have. What will be, will be, but I guess it's always good to be prepared! Thanks for stopping by and commenting.
We on the east coast of the US are experiencing drastic changes in erosion. At the same time, we are also feeling winter temps at the lowest they have ever been. It's a conundrum. How is global warming making things colder here?
We see devastating storms now that we could have recovered from in the past. But now we can't. Our coastal beaches are degrading to the point where landmarks like the Marconi Tower at Cape Cod and the lighthouse at Cape Hatteras have had to be moved in order to be saved from erosion...rising sea levels?
No one has the answer yet.
Hi Sally, I think 'global warming' conjures up an image of a warmer planet, but that's not necessarily what you and I are seeing. 'Climate Change' is a better description.
Like yourselves, we in the UK have just had some seriously cold winter weather, our first severe winter in over twenty years. Conversely, Australia has seen record temperatures in the opposite direction, so the planet is definitely seeing some big changes. My hope is that the changes come slowly enough for the Earth's population to adapt and make proper provision.
good hub!
Thanks for stopping by and commenting Martin.
Congradulations Amanda, on your wonderful following and readship, very impressive. I feel worried as well about the conditions of the flooding here in the USA where I live, my property has 80 foot ine trees that tower over my house and the heavy rains we are experiencing this week could cause the soil to becomeso water-logged that they could fall on us while we sleep! the tree doctors were here and said they could cut them down for two thousand dollars each...unfortunately my husband is out of work so we can't come up with enough money for even one tree! So you see I agree with you that the plight of the worlds' condition is so sad, but the immediate threat to my family, like you, it is too big to handle as well....
Hi Deborah-Lynn, two thousand dollars per tree! Sounds like American tree doctors are as well paid as your people doctors! I hope the trees don't cause you too many problems this year. They tend to have very deep roots, and it takes a lot to dislodge them, but I understand your concerns as we have large trees bordering our garden, and I worry about them in stormy weather. The bad weather this Winter has caught us all by surprise. I wonder if this is now the new weather pattern for our hemisphere. I anticipate that it may be.
Amanda, I suppose I am late coming to this hub but the worry continues; I get it. My son lives near LA and I worry about the earthquake that threatens. Natural disasters are not class conscious or racist or sexist. That is no comfort. And losing a home is losing a home, whether in your neighborhood or Haiti or Tuvalu. I hear you, Amanda. Loud and clear.
You're absolutely right Barb. Natural disasters are indiscriminate, and oh what havoc they can generate, as we've seen just recently with the Icelandic volcano. So far, we're not panicking too badly about our proximity to the sea, but I do intend to head further in-land next time we move, just to be on the safe side!
I used to live in the UK, and yes, I agree, I would only buy a house in an area that is well above sea level, very well above! In the end the plains in the UK that got flooded in 2007 are not called 'flood plains' for nothing! As for whom to ask, you might enjoy this comic of an online friend of mine: http://calamitiesofnature.com/archive/?c=322 SY
Hi Hospitalera, every time the UK has floods the flood plains get mentioned. Unfortunately the UK is quite densely populated in many of the at risk areas, and more developments are planned to cope with our ever-increasing numbers. I enjoyed your friends cartoon and take the point. I personally don't understand enough science to make a realistic judgement on climate change, but you only have to look around you and pay attention to know that there's some horrendous natural disasters very possibly lining up. It's always better to be safe than sorry!
Interesting Hub Amanda. There was a time when there was a land bridge between southern England and the Continent, so it shows how much sea levels can rise and fall. There has always been a huge amount of natural climate change, so I don't see why we think that should change just because it doesn't suit the human race, after all we are the ones who have built most of our major cities on the coast. How much of current climate change is down to pollution and emmisions is hotly debated, but I would have thought that it generally makes sense to keep our planet as unpolluted and pristine as possible.
Hi CMHypno. You mention the land bridge between the UK and Europe, and of course we're constantly losing land to coastal erosion even now with our modern sea defences. On the east coast of Britain whole villages already lie beneath the waves, lost within the last 500 years. The climate would change with or without carbon emissions, but I agree with you. We are the Earth's custodians, and it would be nice to think we could do a better job than we have been doing.
The answer to your question Amanda, is yes! But it probably isn't too urgent yet; when you do move, check out height above sea level though. I've been doing that for ten years since I moved from Norfolk [which will mostly disappear] to Herefordshire [only localised flooding due to heavy rains], and now to Scotland [used to heavy rain, and drains off quickly, but not immune to flooding].
Of course we are responsible for climate change, those who deny it, or hedge their bets like some posters here, are just denying the obvious. The thing is, just like a supertanker, global warming is going to take a long time to slow down since we've been causing it since the start of the industrial revolution and it's a massive, slow process. If we were to ALL cut our carbon drastically today, it would still grind on. So the future will be one of survival as infrastructure and trade are disrupted, it won't be an easy ride.
Good hub, I've linked to you from my blog [I search for the phrase 'time to move to higher ground' periodically to add a new link. This month it's you!
Hi Fool on the Hill, I just checked out your blog, and I enjoyed your musings very much. I guess long-term much of the UK might disappear beneath the waves, but I'm hoping that it's a little way off yet!
diogenes 2 years ago
Hi Amanda: To a lesser or much greater degree, life has always been at risk to natural disasters and changes: volacanos, eathquakes, storms, ice-ages, heavenly bodies, tsunamis and the rest. We have had 7 ice-ages we know about in the last 500 million years, for example. It's all in our frame of reference. It all seems (and is) worse in 2009 because the media records every moment and there are so many of us, someone is always affected. Yes, always better to live well above sea or flood level think...Good hub...Bob